Dr. Amal Essayem has contributed a book chapter to Financial Frontiers in Energy Markets entitled:

“Brent Crude Under Pressure: Saudi Supply, China Demand, and the Myth of Geopolitical Pricing.”

This chapter examines the determinants of Brent crude oil prices using monthly data from 2002 to 2025 within a quantile regression framework. It analyzes the role of global geopolitical risk, Saudi crude oil supply, and China’s structural demand across different market conditions.

The findings indicate that global geopolitical risk does not exert a systematic or persistent influence on Brent prices, as oil markets appear capable of absorbing political shocks through supply diversification and established risk-hedging mechanisms. In contrast, Saudi Arabia’s production adjustments have a tangible and downward impact on prices under normal market conditions, reaffirming its role as a swing producer. Meanwhile, China’s economic growth emerges as a structural and consistent upward driver across all market states.

Overall, the study highlights the resilience of oil markets to geopolitical disturbances and underscores the central role of Saudi supply management and Chinese demand in shaping long-term price dynamics.

You can check details here